A una semana del anuncio de la fórmula Alberto-Cristina, el binomio del peronismo aventaja a Mauricio Macri por más de diez puntos. Así lo indican dos encuestas realizadas en forma exclusiva para PáginaI12. Los datos son más que auspiciosos para Fernández-Kirchner porque significa que la decisión de la ex presidenta de competir como vice no significó una pérdida de votos y, por el contrario, se abre la posibilidad de que la candidatura de Alberto Fernández consiga el apoyo de numerosos gobernadores e intendentes.
El punto nodal es que siete de cada diez argentinos piensan que el rumbo del país es equivocado. Más de la mitad de las personas califica la gestión del gobierno como mala o muy mala. Y en el electorado aparece una nítida voluntad de cambio.
Si se tomaran los números fríos, tal como surgen de los sondeos, aparece la posibilidad de que la fórmula peronista pueda imponerse en primera vuelta, pero todavía falta mucho tiempo hasta los comicios.
Según los datos las cosas no mejorarían demasiado para el Gobierno en caso de que Macri desista de su candidatura y lo reemplace María Eugenia Vidal. Por otro lado, las idas y vueltas de Alternativa Federal deterioran lo que se llama la “avenida del medio”.
Las conclusiones surgen de dos sondeos realizados para este diario por el Centro de Estudios de Opinión Pública (CEOP), que lidera Roberto Bacman, y por la consultora Trespuntozero, encabezada por Shila Vilker. Cada encuestadora entrevistó mil personas de todo el país, respetando las proporciones por edad, sexo y nivel socio-económico. Las entrevistas fueron telefónicas.
Clima
Los dos sondeos exhiben que el factor decisivo es el clima de cambio producido por la hecatombe económica, con pérdida del salario real, hundimiento de las jubilaciones, desempleo y caída de la actividad en todas las ramas.
El CEOP pidió opinión sobre el rumbo económico del país y nada menos que el 64,4 por ciento contestó que es equivocado, frente a un módico 26 que sostiene que el rumbo es correcto. Es decir que el oficialismo ni siquiera logra convencer a los votantes de que los “sacrificios” actuales valen la pena porque la orientación sería la correcta.
Trespuntozero preguntó por el deseo de cambio de los encuestados. Nada menos que el 51,7 por ciento afirmó que quiere que cambie el gobierno nacional, o sea que no continúe Macri. A eso se suma otro 5,5 por ciento que postula también el cambio pero afirma que hay que conservar algunos avances. En total, entonces, un 57,2 por ciento se pronuncia a favor de un cambio de gobierno. Enfrente, únicamente un 34,5 por ciento se considera continuista. El el grupo de los que quieren que siga el actual Presidente.
Números
Bacman y Vilker coinciden en que el pase de CFK a la candidatura a vice no significó una pérdida de votos para la fórmula. Para el CEOP, hoy la fórmula Fernández-Fernández lidera con el 39,3 por ciento de los votos, contra el 29,7 de Mauricio Macri al frente de Cambiemos. Si se asigna al bloque de decididos el siete por ciento de indecisos, el binomio del PJ superaría el 40 por ciento. En ese caso habría que ver si logra los diez puntos de distancia respecto de Cambiemos, uno de los requisitos de la Constitución para coronarse sin ballotage.
Un elemento de importancia es que la elección tenderá a polarizarse, lo que podría ampliar los votos de las dos fuerzas mayoritarias. Esto aumentaría las chances de un triunfo sin segunda vuelta. En este terreno, claro, la situación no está definida y todavía muchísimo puede cambiar.
Para Trespuntozero la diferencia es, hoy por hoy, casi de 12 puntos. Fernández-Fernández llega a 42,2 frente a 30,6 de Macri. La consultora considera que desde el lanzamiento de Alberto como candidato hubo un crecimiento de la fórmula peronista aunque también un leve crecimiento del voto de Cambiemos. Esto se explica porque se ha ido debilitando Alternativa Federal, que hasta ahora englobaba a Roberto Lavagna y Sergio Massa.
Trespuntozero evaluó también la posibilidad de un ballotage. El resultado es llamativo. Para la consultora hay una fuerte diferencia a favor de la fórmula que encabeza Alberto, que se impondría 49,5 a 35,7 de Macri. Incluso en caso de que la candidata fuera Vidal, también la ventaja sería de 14 puntos.
Evoluciones
“Había dos cifras que parecían inamovibles –analiza Vilker–. Por un lado, el techo de CFK. Hoy en dia el rechazo a la ex presidenta bajó al 44,6 por ciento. O sea que hay más de un 50 por ciento que dice que la votaría o tal vez la votaría.” El dato es impactante si se tiene en cuenta la virulenta campaña contra ella y el hostigamiento judicial. Parte del mérito debe adjudicarse a la desastrosa gestión económica de Cambiemos, que por comparación hace brillar más la figura de la ex mandataria. “La otra cifra que parecía inamovible era el piso de Mauricio Macri”, agrega Vilker. “Hoy el Presidente tiene un 56,6 por ciento que dice que no lo votaría en ningún caso.”
“Los indicadores de popularidad de Alberto y Cristina son ciertamente muy buenos –afirma Bacman–: la ex presidenta ya roza el 47 por ciento de imagen positiva y Alberto irrumpe en la escena electoral con una imagen positiva de 43,5 por ciento, cosa que permite concluir que tiene suficiente tela para crecer en intención de voto.”
Añade Bacman: “El resto de los precandidatos, reales y potenciales, ha sentido el impacto. Mauricio Macri sigue estancado y en los últimos meses se ubicó entre el 28 y el 29 por ciento. Y es válido señalar que en esta última encuesta se lo midió con María Eugenia Vidal como compañera de fórmula y su intención de voto tampoco supera la barrera del 30 por ciento. Todo parece indicar que el techo de crecimiento es una variable que ahora caracteriza a Cambiemos”.
Frente
Tanto Bacman como Vilker afirman que la fórmula AF-CFK tiene que trabajar en ampliar el frente que encabeza. Y los dos sostienen que para esa alianza sería importante incorporar a Massa, así como para el tigrense parecería clave sumarse y no quedar aislado.
El CEOP les preguntó a todos los que afirman que no votarán a Macri si Massa debe o no integrar el frente de la fórmula Fernández-Fernández. Más de la mitad de los encuestados consideró que ése es el paso que tiene que dar el líder del Frente Renovador. Mirando las encuestas del CEOP y de Trespuntozero, el camino dentro de Alternativa Federal es árido. Para Bacman puede alcanzar el nueve por ciento de los votos y para Vilker sólo el cinco por ciento.
Un dato discrepante entre el CEOP y Trespuntozero es que para la primera consultora Massa tiene más intención de voto que Lavagna. Para Trespuntozero, Lavagna superaría a Massa.
Más allá de los estudios puntuales, está claro que la nueva fórmula pisa muy fuerte en el Gran Buenos Aires y cosecha una amplia mayoría entre los jóvenes, en tanto tiene dificultades en algunos distritos del interior y sobre todo entre las personas mayores de 60 años.
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