El sitio digital politicargentina.com señala que, definitivamente, con Cambiemos la Argentina volvió a los primeros lugares de las noticias del mundo, aunque no precisamente por hechos positivos ni por una administración brillante.
Es que no sólo los medios internacionales más importantes, la OCDE y otros entes globales critican al gobierno nacional, sino que también la ONU liquidó a Mauricio Macri: el organismo sostuvo que la economía PRO es de las peores del planeta y hasta comparó su desempeño con la Venezuela de Nicolás Maduro.
El último informe de la situación de la economía global elaborado por las Naciones Unidas refiere efectivamente muchas veces al caso argentino, pero al contrario del horizonte de “volver al mundo” esbozado por Macri todas estas referencias son negativas.
Tal como reveló Página 12 en un artículo, la ONU advirtió que la “recuperación” que promueve el Gobierno está lejos y que, por el contrario, “el horizonte es altamente incierto”.
Lo más grave del caso, además, es que también desparrama el argumento de macrismo de señalar al mundo y las “tormentas” extranjeras como uno de los culpables de la situación. El organismo internacional sostiene que existe un contexto internacional difícil, pero atribuye gran parte de la responsabilidad de la crisis argentina a “la falta de capacidad del Gobierno para domesticar a la inflación” y pone el foco en la tasa de interés “récord” del Banco Central.
Las estimaciones de la ONU marcan que el PBI argentino tuvo el año pasado una caída del 2,8 % y que este año la baja será del 1,8 %. En ambos casos, se trata del único resultado negativo en los países de la región con la excepción de Venezuela, y en eso se sostiene la comparación con la gestión de Maduro.
Entre los países limítrofes, Uruguay creció 1,9 y se prevé un 1,5 para este año; Paraguay, 4,5 y 4,7; Brasil, 1,4 y 2,1; Bolivia, 4,3 y 4,4 y Chile, 3,9 y 3,3 por ciento.
Pero el mal desempeño relativo de la Argentina no se limita a la región sino que sobresalió a nivel global. El informe advierte que a lo largo del 2018 el deterioro del valor del peso fue el más pronunciado entre las economías con peso propio de todo el planeta. Mientras la moneda local perdió algo más de la mitad de su poder de compra en dólares, hasta la lira turca lo hizo por arriba del 30 por ciento.
Entre el 13 y el 10% de depreciación de la moneda se quedaron la India, Brasil, Rusia, Indonesia y Sudáfrica. Mejor les fue a Filipinas, Chile, China, Corea del Sur, Taiwán y México.
Puntualmente, Naciones Unidas es claro en señalar que el grado de deterioro cambiario de Argentina y de Turquía “se debe a factores domésticos” y advierte sobre el efecto contagio del caso turco, por la exposición de bancos europeos y principalmente españoles a deudores de ese país.
Si bien la ONU señala que el año pasado se verificó un contexto económico adverso y menciona que además de Argentina, India, Indonesia y México tuvieron que elevar las tasas de interés y que junto al caso local, Barbados, Pakistán y Sri Lanka debieron acudir a la ayuda financiera del FMI, la gestión de Macri sobresale porque atravesó particularmente mal la tormenta, tanto es así que con su desempeño contribuyó a la profundización de los desequilibrios.
“El déficit fiscal y de cuenta corriente, combinados con la falta de capacidad del Gobierno para domesticar a la inflación motivó un aumento del pesimismo acerca del futuro de la economía. Con la economía en recesión junto a severas medidas de austeridad fiscal, el horizonte es altamente incierto”, disparan en el informe.
La ONU, además, resalta que en la región “el consumo de los hogares se desaceleró en 2018, en parte como reflejo del mercado laboral más débil y de un fuerte deterioro de la situación en Argentina”.
“El giro económico recesivo en 2018 ha sido particularmente severo en Argentina”, enfatiza el organismo para que queden claras las responsabilidad del gobierno de Macri, y agrega otra comparación entre el líder PRO y Caracas al sostener que “en su mayoría los países se mantuvieron en línea con los objetivos de inflación de sus bancos centrales, con las excepciones de Argentina y de Venezuela”.
En el mismo sentido y pese a ser un número generoso, la inflación estimada por la ONU del 32% para este año en Argentina, y es superada nada más que supera por Irán (34,9), solamente porque no hay datos para Venezuela
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