Vencen $ 400 mil millones de Lebac y el Banco Central renueva menos de la mitad
El Banco Central renovará sólo la mitad de Lebac que vencen en poder de inversores que no son bancos. En la práctica, significa que emitirá de una sola vez 150.000 millones de pesos, aunque ya está armado el plan para minimizar la presión sobre el tipo de cambio.
El vencimiento de hoy asciende a unos $ 400.000 millones. De ese total, hay 100.000 millones de pesos en poder de bancos, que deberán optar por suscribir Leliq (a siete días de plazo) o Nobac, a más de un año. El desafío se concentra en los restantes $ 300.000 millones en poder de entidades no bancarias. Y de ese monto, el Central sólo renovará la mitad.
Por lo pronto, ayer el BCRA salió desde temprano a “marcar la cancha” para evitar un salto adicional de la divisa en el arranque de la semana. Y lo consiguió aunque tuvo que destinar USD 308 millones, la cifra más alta de las últimas semanas. Finalmente el dólar cerró a $ 40,20 en Banco Nación, cediendo 30 centavos, y a $ 39,53 en el mercado mayorista.
Básicamente habrá dos medidas para salir a rescatar esos pesos que se liberarán, señala la publicación del portal Infobae. En primer lugar, la autoridad monetaria ya anunció un aumento de los encajes bancarios de cinco puntos, que significa una absorción de 100.000 millones de pesos.
Y ayer el Tesoro anunció la emisión de dos nuevos bonos, denominados Letras de Capitalización (Lecap). Uno será a 132 días y una tasa mensual de 4% capitalizable, lo que arroja un rendimiento de 60% anual. Es el mismo rendimiento que tienen las Lebac, aunque el plazo es más largo. El segundo será a un año y una tasa de 3,45% anual. Se supone que serán inversores institucionales como fondos comunes y empresas los que saldrán a demandar estos títulos, ya que deben permanecer en pesos.
El resto deberá ser absorbido por el BCRA, utilizando más dólares de las reservas, que ayer cayeron USD 389 millones. Finalizaron en USD 49.620 millones. El objetivo de Caputo sería minimizar el uso de reservas para suavizar la presión sobre el tipo de cambio.
Es posible que tanto hoy como mañana el Central salga a licitar entre USD 300 y 500 millones para abastecer la oferta del mercado y evitar sorpresas. Aunque en las últimas dos jornadas optó por salir directamente a vender, lo que fue interpretado como una luz verde del FMI para poder controlar un poco más de cerca el precio de la divisa.
El antecedente es preocupante, ya que la anterior reducción del stock de Lebac por $ 120.000 millones derivó en un fuerte salto del dólar hasta los $ 40. El salto se produjo en la última quincena de agosto y muchos lo atribuyeron a la expansión monetaria producida posteriormente a esa operación. En el Central consideran que fueron dos fenómenos independientes.
Por otra parte, en el Gobierno consideran que un dólar a $ 40 ya es suficientemente elevado. “Si el dólar subiera por ejemplo a $ 44, un 10% más que ahora, ya estaríamos con el mismo tipo de cambio real del 2003”, explican en Hacienda.
El objetivo del Central es terminar de eliminar el stock de Lebac en noviembre. Así buscan reducir un fuerte factor de riesgo que afecta hace ya mucho tiempo al mercado cambiario. No habrá más Súper Martes como sucede hoy y viene ocurriendo hace más de un año y medio, con el peligro de que aumente la presión sobre el ya elevado tipo de cambio.
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